Influence of El Niño and Seasonal Forecasts on Crop Production in Southern Africa
Erin Coughlan de Perez and her co-authors recently analyzed how El Niño knowledge and seasonal forecasts impact farming in Southern Africa. Their study found that El Niño events correlate with decreased cropping areas and worse yields for maize and sorghum, prompting farmers to either reduce cultivation or seek alternative income sources. Despite these challenges, no clear relationship between forecast accuracy and yield improvement was established.
In a recent study, Erin Coughlan de Perez and her colleagues undertook an extensive analysis of subnational data regarding cropping areas and yields, aiming to assess the impact of El Niño knowledge and seasonal forecasts on farming practices within Southern Africa. El Niño events have been consistently associated with reduced rainfall patterns in the region, and as a result, the integration of seasonal rainfall forecasts into agricultural advisories has become a prevalent practice among farmers. Despite the established correlation between El Niño phenomena and drought occurrences posing significant challenges for agriculture, there has been limited understanding regarding the extent to which this information influences broader agricultural decision-making processes among farmers. Published in the journal Climate Services, the study’s findings indicated notable trends in regions such as Lesotho and certain areas of South Africa: specifically, the planting areas for essential crops like maize and sorghum tend to decline during El Niño occurrences when there is an indication of a drier-than-usual start to the season. Furthermore, the analysis highlighted that drought conditions associated with El Niño result in poorer yields compared to yields during other drought scenarios. These findings suggest that farmers may respond to El Niño conditions by either shrinking their cultivated areas or seeking alternative means of income during years when El Niño is present. However, it is important to note that the research did not establish a clear connection between the accuracy of forecasts and subsequent improvements in crop yields.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by the periodic warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which can have significant global weather implications. In Southern Africa, El Niño is particularly associated with reduced rainfall, leading to drought conditions that critically impact agriculture. Farmers in the region engage with seasonal rainfall forecasts as part of their agricultural decision-making process, recognizing the potential effects of these climatic events on crop production and yields. Understanding how farmers adapt their practices in response to El Niño and seasonal forecasts is crucial for enhancing resilience and improving agricultural outcomes in this vulnerable region.
The study conducted by Erin Coughlan de Perez and her co-authors provides insightful revelations regarding the agricultural adaptations of farmers in Southern Africa in response to El Niño events and seasonal forecasts. It underscores a tendency among farmers to decrease cropping areas or pursue alternative income strategies during El Niño occurrences, particularly when the forecasts indicate reduced rainfall. This research emphasizes the necessity for improved understanding and communication of climate forecasts to better support agricultural practices and resilience among farmers in affected regions.
Original Source: now.tufts.edu
