Turkey’s Quest for a New Strategy in Syria amid Complex Challenges

Turkey faces a critical juncture in its Syria strategy, balancing military operations against YPG forces with attempts to engage diplomatically with the Assad government. U.S. opposition to Turkey’s military aims and Russia’s involvement complicate the situation, while recent proposals may signal a shift in Turkey’s approach to the Kurdish issue. The outcome remains uncertain amidst regional tensions and historical complexities.

Turkey is at a pivotal moment regarding its strategy in Syria, which has become increasingly complicated due to military stalemates and the geopolitical maneuvers of Russia and the United States. Facing opposition from both superpowers and under pressure from economic sanctions, Ankara is contemplating a shift towards diplomatic measures that may include re-evaluating its stance on Kurdish entities in Syria. These developments coincide with Turkey’s attempts to dialogue with the Assad regime while simultaneously addressing its security concerns regarding the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Since 2015, Turkey’s military operations in Syria have focused on neutralizing the PKK-affiliated YPG forces, designated as critical threats to Turkey’s national security. However, U.S. support for the SDF has complicated these efforts, specifically following an agreement between the SDF and Damascus facilitated by Russia in 2019 to counter Turkish military advances. Despite Turkey’s active military campaigns in the region, the Russian response, which included bolstering their military presence, significantly hindered Ankara’s objectives.

Turkey’s considerations have led to a dialogue with the Syrian government, reflecting a departure from its previous aggressive posture towards Damascus. Recent efforts to organize meetings between President Erdogan and President Assad, spearheaded by discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, aim to navigate toward collaborative security arrangements against the YPG. However, this strategy faces significant hurdles due to the differing priorities of the involved parties.

The potential emergence of a Kurdish state—referred to by Turkish officials as “Terroristan”—remains a grave concern for Ankara, further aggravated by the prospect of heightened regional conflicts involving Israel and Iran. Such tensions could lead to an overflow of refugees, exacerbating Turkey’s already sizeable burden of displaced populations.

Significantly, the Turkish political landscape is shifting as well. In a move that could reshape the Kurdish dialogue, Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party and an ally of Erdogan, has proposed allowing Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned PKK leader, to speak in the Turkish parliament if he advocates for the cessation of armed conflict. While this reflects a possible thaw in relations regarding the Kurdish issue, there remains skepticism about its viability given the historical failures in peace processes between Turkey and the PKK.

Given the complex interplay of local, regional, and international dynamics, any progress made by Turkey in relation to its Kurdish policies and the Syrian conflict remains uncertain. Moving forward, the United States and Turkey may benefit from finding a common ground, but the U.S. should strive to remain impartial and avoid being perceived as a part of Turkey’s negotiating process with the PKK.

Turkey’s involvement in Syria is deeply rooted in its longstanding conflict with the PKK and its affiliates, particularly the YPG, which Turkey considers a terrorist organization. Over the years, Turkey has conducted several military operations aimed at erasing the YPG threat, which it deems integral to its national security. However, the dynamics have shifted due to diplomatic engagements between the SDF and Damascus, facilitated by Russia, and opposition from the U.S., which has continued to support the SDF in combating ISIS, thus complicating Turkey’s military objectives. Domestically, Turkey grapples with economic woes and shifting political allegiances, shaping its approach to the Kurdish issues and Syria in general.

In summary, Turkey’s strategy in Syria is evolving amidst significant geopolitical pressures and internal dynamics. Efforts to engage diplomatically with the Assad regime may pave the way toward addressing security concerns regarding the YPG. However, the historical complexity of the PKK issue and the competing interests of Russia and the United States complicate the situation. As Turkey seeks a resolution, any meaningful progress will depend on navigating these intricate relationships, with the U.S. ideally remaining a neutral party in these deliberations.

Original Source: www.atlanticcouncil.org