Somalia’s Multi-Hazard Displacement Projections for Q2 2025

Somalia’s Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) for Q2 2025 prioritizes 30 districts, anticipating 124,249 displacements. The top five districts, including Banadir and Luuq, are projected to experience significant increases in displacements primarily due to drought and conflict.

In the second quarter of 2025, Somalia will focus on addressing humanitarian needs in 30 prioritized districts as outlined in the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP). Significantly, 11 of these districts are among the 15 most affected areas, expected to experience a total of 124,249 displacements.

The top five districts anticipated to witness the highest number of displacements are Banadir, Baydhaba, Luuq, Kismaayo, and Afmadow, accounting for 95,689 displacements, which is approximately 41% of the total projected. Banadir is projected to see 39,251 displacements (a 4% increase), followed by Baydhaba at 21,053 (a 3% increase), Luuq at 13,098 (a 12% increase), Kismaayo at 12,862 (a 7% increase), and Afmadow at 9,425 (a significant 19% increase).

Drought conditions are likely to be the primary cause of these displacements; however, conflict will also play a significant role particularly in Luuq, where 56% of movements stem from the district itself, and in Afmadow, where 39% of displacements originate from local conflicts.

In summary, Somalia faces a critical humanitarian situation in April to June 2025, with 30 districts prioritized for response efforts. A substantial number of displacements, driven mainly by drought and exacerbated by conflict, poses significant challenges, particularly in key districts such as Banadir and Luuq. It is imperative to address these vulnerabilities to mitigate the impact of future displacements.

Original Source: reliefweb.int