Tropical Cyclone Courtney Develops as Australian Cyclone Season…

Tropical Cyclone Courtney formed on March 26, 2025, as a Category 1 system, becoming the eighth cyclone of the season. Despite rapid movement westward, it is not expected to impact Australia directly. The current season has seen an unusual number of severe cyclones, primarily due to elevated sea temperatures and a favorable monsoon pattern. DTN APAC offers essential forecasting and alert services to mitigate business risks from severe weather events.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney, classified as a Category 1 system, emerged on March 26, 2025, marking the eighth cyclone of the Australian season. Originating from a tropical low south of Bali, Courtney transitioned from a slow development phase to being officially named by the Bureau of Meteorology on Wednesday morning. It was reported to be located approximately 900 kilometers northwest of Exmouth at that time.

Forecasts indicate that Cyclone Courtney will rapidly move westward due to a southern high-pressure ridge. Predictions suggest that it may pass within 500 kilometers south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands by Friday, though it is not expected to directly affect the islands or the Australian mainland significantly.

The current Australian tropical cyclone season has exhibited notable activity, particularly between mid-January and early April when six of the eight cyclones to date formed. Approximately 75% of these cyclones achieved category 3 or higher ratings, significantly exceeding the typical annual ratio. The severe cyclones Zelia and Alfred have accumulated an estimated damage cost exceeding 2 billion dollars.

Furthermore, the incidence of intense tropical cyclones corresponds with exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures, which reached record levels from October 2024 to February 2025. This unusual warmth has played a contributory role in the heightened cyclone activity this season.

Looking ahead, a robust monsoon over northern Australia is anticipated to increase the likelihood of additional cyclone development. A cluster of convective clouds off the northwest Kimberley coast is expected to organize into tropical low 28U over the next 24 to 36 hours, with a moderate chance of intensification into a cyclone between Friday and Sunday. However, land proximity may hinder significant development prior to its anticipated landfall, likely on Saturday.

Regardless of the evolution of tropical low 28U, increased moist monsoonal air will result in substantial rainfall and potential flooding within the Kimberley region, with projected totals of 100-200mm and localized areas exceeding 400mm.

As the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) weakens in early April, the probability of further cyclone formations may decline. The next expected MJO phase may coincide with the onset of the dry season in northern Australia, potentially signaling the last significant rain event of the season before cyclones can still emerge at any time within the region.

DTN APAC offers essential services in forecasting, alerting, and threat analysis regarding tropical cyclones. With cutting-edge solutions, rapid updates, and tailored weather intelligence, businesses can safeguard their operations from severe weather events. DTN APAC closely monitors evolving low-pressure systems, providing up to a seven-day outlook, allowing organizations to prepare effectively in a timely manner, ensuring the safety of personnel and assets.

In summary, Tropical Cyclone Courtney has formed as a Category 1 system and is expected to move quickly westward away from the mainland. Recent months have shown increased cyclone intensity in the Australian region, fueled by warm sea surface temperatures. Meanwhile, the monsoon pattern suggests potential new developments, albeit with risks of flooding. DTN APAC remains committed to providing comprehensive support and timely updates for businesses affected by these changing weather conditions.

Original Source: apac.dtn.com