Kenya: Forecast and Expectations for Heavy Downpours During Long Rains Season
The Kenya Meteorological Department warns of heavy downpours as the March-April-May Long Rains season commences, urging caution among residents. Rainfall is expected across various regions, particularly in highland areas and the southeastern lowlands. The official onset has been noted with specific rainfall thresholds outlined and forecasts predicting dry spells in some areas.
The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued a warning for heavy rainfall as the March-April-May (MAM) Long Rains season begins. Director David Gikungu emphasized the importance of vigilance and necessary precautions in anticipation of continued rain across various regions this week.
Mr. Gikungu indicated that isolated heavy rainfall is likely, particularly in areas such as the highlands east and west of the Rift Valley, Nairobi County, the Lake Victoria Basin, southeastern lowlands, and northeastern Kenya. Observations from March 3 to 9, 2025, showed a significant rise in rainfall, particularly in the southeastern lowlands and northeastern parts.
The subsequent rainfall from March 10 to 16, 2025, officially marked the beginning of the MAM season, particularly affecting the highlands west of the Rift Valley and the Lake Victoria Basin. Additional rainfall was also noted across the Rift Valley, Nairobi, and other isolated locations.
KMD defines the onset of the MAM season as the first day of heavy rainfall when a wet spell accumulates at least 20 mm over three consecutive days, with no dry spells lasting up to 21 days. In northern regions, a threshold of 10 mm of rain over three consecutive days suffices for confirmation.
Mr. Gikungu stated that the remaining highlands and southeastern lowlands are anticipated to experience the season’s onset this week, along with the northeastern region expected to see rainfall between March 18-31. However, sporadic dry spells may occur following this period. Occasional rainfall is also forecasted for the northwestern and coastal regions during March 2025, with the coastal area expecting peak rainfall in May and onset in April.
In conclusion, the Kenya Meteorological Department has forewarned the public about the arrival of the Long Rains season, encouraging caution amidst anticipated heavy rains across various regions. The onset criteria include specific rainfall thresholds, and while significant rains are expected soon, subsequent dry spells are possible, particularly in the northeastern parts. Residents are urged to remain vigilant and prepared as the peak of the season approaches.
Original Source: allafrica.com
