Tropical Cyclone Activity Report: February 4, 2025
On February 4, 2025, the Pacific Disaster Center reported multiple tropical cyclones, including 11S (Faida), 13S (Vince), and 14S (Taliah). Cyclone 11S is set to impact Madagascar shortly. Cyclone 13S boasts stronger winds and potential for redevelopment, while 14S shows signs of development amidst varied atmospheric conditions. The new Invest 92P indicates promise for cyclogenesis over the coming days.
On February 4, 2025, the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) reported several active tropical cyclones across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Currently, Tropical Cyclone 11S, named Faida, is located near Madagascar, while Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) and 14S (Taliah) are positioned farther east. Additionally, Tropical Cyclone 15P is southwest of Fiji, with final warnings issued for both Faida and 15P.
In the South Indian Ocean, Faida’s current conditions indicate sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts reaching 35 knots. The cyclone is expected to make landfall in Madagascar within the next 12 hours. A favorable environment precedes this landfall, although some weakening is predicted due to the terrain. After passing the island, it may strengthen again over the Mozambique Channel.
Cyclone 13S, Vince, is stronger with sustained winds of 95 knots and gusts up to 115 knots. The cyclone is currently experiencing some interaction with land but may have potential for redevelopment once it re-enters the water. The interaction with Madagascar is expected to weaken the system initially, rendering it again susceptible to intensification over warmer sea temperatures of the channel.
Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) showcases sustained winds at 80 knots. Its visual data depicts a developing eye feature, although dry air intrusion may be hindering significant growth. Conditions remain marginally favorable with the possibility for more defined structures absent of excessive shear, suggesting its development may be ongoing depending on current environmental interactions.
Tropical Cyclone 15P has final warnings in effect, with winds of 35 knots and some signs of structural disarray due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions. Lastly, a developing system referred to as Invest 92P is noted west-northwest of New Caledonia, with forecasts indicating potential cyclonic development in the coming days amid a conducive environment for strengthening.
Current assessments indicate significant cyclone activity in the Pacific region, particularly with Tropical Cyclone 11S (Faida) and 13S (Vince). Both systems are forecasted for imminent landfalls, with potential for subsequent re-intensification in the Mozambique Channel. Meanwhile, ongoing vigilance for Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) and the developing Invest 92P is advised as conditions progress. The atmospheric activity across these regions remains a critical focus for tropical cyclone forecasting and preparedness.
Original Source: www.pdc.org
