Tropical Cyclone Update: Activity Report for January 30, 2025

This report from the Pacific Disaster Center discusses the status of Tropical Cyclones 11S and 12S, and two weather disturbances, Invest 96P and 99S. Tropical Cyclone 11S is struggling against adverse conditions, while 12S shows signs of intensification before transitioning. Both Invests remain unlikely to develop significantly due to low maximum sustained winds and disorganization.

The Pacific Disaster Center issued an update on January 30, 2025, detailing Tropical Cyclones 11S and 12S, along with Invests 96P and 99S. Tropical Cyclone 11S, located 590 nautical miles south-southwest of Diego Garcia, is struggling against adverse environmental factors, including dry air and easterly shear, which hinder its intensification efforts. In contrast, Tropical Cyclone 12S (Elvis), approximately 619 nautical miles northeast of Mauritius, shows signs of intensification before expected extratropical transition within 48 hours.

Invest 96P, situated about 194 nautical miles southeast of Cairns, Australia, appears poorly organized despite a favorable environment for development. Its maximum sustained winds range from 18 to 23 knots, although the potential for a significant tropical cyclone remains low. Similarly, Invest 99S, approximately 243 nautical miles south-southwest of Christmas Island, exhibits fragmented rain bands around its developing low-level circulation. This system also has a low likelihood of evolving into a significant tropical cyclone soon.

The report highlights the current latitudinal locations of Tropical Cyclone 11S and 12S while emphasizing that the northeastern and central Pacific regions are free from active tropical cyclones. It notes the conclusion of the 2024 eastern North Pacific and central North Pacific hurricane seasons, with routine updates resuming in mid and late 2025 respectively.

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of current tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific region, specifically focusing on Cyclone 11S, Cyclone 12S (Elvis), and two disturbances identified as Invest 96P and Invest 99S. The updates include detailed meteorological observations, including the environmental factors affecting these systems. Understanding these aspects is vital for predicting cyclones’ paths and potential intensification, ultimately informing disaster preparedness and response efforts in the affected regions.

In summary, Tropical Cyclones 11S and 12S illustrate the dynamic conditions of the Pacific region, where unfavorable environmental factors challenge their intensification. Meanwhile, Invest 96P and Invest 99S represent emerging systems with potential for development but remain unlikely to escalate to significant tropical cyclones imminently. Ongoing monitoring will be essential as these systems evolve.

Original Source: www.pdc.org