NOAA Predicts Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season Ahead

NOAA forecasts an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with 13 to 19 named storms expected. Six to ten storms may become hurricanes, with three to five potentially major hurricanes. The forecast highlights the influence of warmer ocean conditions and staffing challenges within weather services, underscoring the importance of preparedness for residents.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, indicating that it will be busier than usual this year. Ken Graham, a meteorologist and director at the National Weather Service, stated, “We’re really looking at an above normal season.” NOAA estimates there will be between 13 to 19 named storms, the first classification occurring when wind speeds hit 39 mph or higher.

Out of the predicted storms, it is anticipated that six to ten will escalate into hurricanes, reaching wind speeds of over 74 mph. Furthermore, the hurricane season is likely to see three to five major hurricanes, which are classified as Category 3 or higher. However, the forecasts stop short of specifying where hurricanes might hit land or how many may impact the U.S. coastline. Still, forecasters are urging residents to prepare ahead of time. Graham emphasized, “It’s a good time to go out there and get your supplies and your kit and put it together.”

This year’s above-average forecast correlates with warmer ocean temperatures, a situation that Graham attributes to climate change. He commented, “The warmer ocean temperatures is really consistent with us being in a more active season,” during a recent news briefing. Another contributing factor to this forecast is the heightened activity of the West African Monsoon, which typically helps propel storms across the Atlantic toward the United States.

Compounding these weather-related concerns, the National Weather Service is currently experiencing staffing shortages. Following actions from the Trump administration that included layoffs and voluntary retirement programs, approximately 600 personnel have departed the National Weather Service in the early months of 2025. Nonetheless, leadership at the National Hurricane Center, which operates under NOAA, expressed confidence in their staffing and preparedness. Laura Grimm, acting administrator of NOAA, assured that “we are fully staffed at the hurricane center, and we definitely are ready to go. “.

The local forecasting offices, however, remain significantly impacted by these vacancies, creating a challenge for accurate forecasting post-landfall of hurricanes, particularly regarding threats such as flooding and heavy rainfall. Graham indicated his commitment to ensuring these offices are equipped for hurricane threats: “I’m going to make sure that our offices, when there’s a hurricane threat, that’s going to have the resources that they need to make sure every warning goes out.”

The Atlantic hurricane season commences on June 1 and concludes on November 30, with activity typically peaking in late summer and early fall. NOAA’s predictions align relatively well with forecasts from independent research institutions, universities, and private enterprises, which average eight hurricanes for the year.

Reflecting on last year’s season, NOAA had predicted an extraordinarily active period, ending with 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes, among which five reached the U.S. coast. Notably, Hurricane Helene resulted in severe inland flooding after making landfall in Florida, claiming over 150 lives. Similarly, Hurricane Milton struck as a Category 3 storm in Siesta Key, generating 46 tornadoes.

Both hurricanes demonstrated rapid intensification, a trend that’s becoming increasingly probable due to global warming. High sea surface temperatures contribute substantially to this phenomenon. A recent study noted a 29% increase in the occurrence of rapid intensification among tropical cyclones in the Atlantic from 2001 to 2020 when compared with the years 1971 to 1990.

In summary, NOAA’s updated forecast suggests an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season ahead, influenced by warmer ocean temperatures and the West African Monsoon’s impact. While confidence remains at the National Hurricane Center, staffing shortages pose challenges at local forecasting offices. With predictions for numerous storms and potential hurricanes, preparedness ahead of the season is crucial as residents are urged to gather necessary supplies and ensure safety measures are in place.

Original Source: www.nbcnews.com