Forecast Indicates Normal Monsoon for India in 2025
Experts predict a normal southwest monsoon for India in 2025, supported by global forecasts indicating average rainfall, attributed to the absence of El Nino. The IMD is expected to release its first prediction soon, as normal rainfall is critical for agriculture, affecting both kharif and rabi crops.
According to weather expert Akshay Deoras from the National Centre for Atmosphere Science, India is likely to experience a normal southwest monsoon this year, primarily due to the absence of El Nino conditions. He referenced forecasts from reputable sources, including the UK Met Office, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, indicating average to above-average rainfall for the monsoon season, which spans from June to September.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is anticipated to release its first monsoon prediction imminently. If the forecasts from international meteorological agencies prove accurate, this year could mark the second consecutive occurrence of a normal monsoon, following inadequate rainfall in 2023.
During the crucial June-September period, approximately 70 to 75% of India’s annual rainfall occurs. A normal monsoon significantly enhances crop yields and replenishes water reservoirs. Deoras asserts that the models indicate a typical monsoon season, attributing this to the lack of detrimental effects from the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
While acknowledging that the rainfall will also depend on other seasonal weather conditions, he remarked that it is premature to ascertain the timing of the monsoon’s onset over the Kerala coast. The IMD recently highlighted a 75% chance of El Niño-Southern Oscillation shifting to a ‘neutral’ phase by April 2025, which is expected to support a regular monsoon this year.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, emphasized that El Nino conditions are not anticipated during this year’s monsoon season. Furthermore, predictions suggest that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to persist in the forthcoming season.
In 2024, India recorded an 8% increase in rainfall compared to the long-term average, categorized as ‘above normal’ according to the IMD forecasts. However, 2023 witnessed below-normal and uneven monsoon rains, despite initial predictions of a normal season.
Approximately half of India’s agricultural land relies on monsoon rains for the cultivation of kharif crops, such as paddy, pulses, and oilseeds. Adequate monsoonal precipitation is also essential for ensuring sufficient soil moisture for sowing rabi or winter crops like wheat, pulses, and oilseeds. Typically, the southwest monsoon commences over Kerala by June 1 and progresses across the mainland by early July, withdrawing from northwest India by mid-September and concluding by October 15.
In summary, India is projected to receive a normal southwest monsoon this year, a prediction bolstered by the absence of El Nino conditions. This year’s forecasts are crucial, as they support crop growth and water supply. India’s reliance on monsoon rainfall for agriculture underlines the importance of accurate weather predictions for ensuring food security and sustainable farming practices.
Original Source: www.financialexpress.com
