Ending a 40-Year Kurdish Insurgency: A Pivotal Moment for Turkey and Syria
The cessation of a 40-year Kurdish insurgency signifies a historic change for Turkey and the wider Middle East, catalyzed by the recent Gaza conflict. Abdullah Öcalan’s call for peace and the PKK’s expected disbandment reflect transformative shifts in Kurdish autonomy, posing potential challenges to Turkey’s territorial integrity amid evolving geopolitical alliances, particularly with Israel.
The conclusion of a 40-year Kurdish insurgency marks a pivotal moment for Turkey, Syria, and the broader Middle East, influenced by the recent Gaza conflict. This development has sparked new dynamics, particularly concerning the Kurdish influence in the region and its potential use by Israel against Turkey’s interests. Consequently, significant advances have been made toward the leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Öcalan.
Predictions suggest that the PKK will soon officially end its armed struggle and disband, a historical first for the Turkish Republic, as the insurgents would cease operations not through military defeat but through their voluntary decision to disarm. Öcalan, currently enduring a life sentence on İmralı Island, evokes comparisons to Nelson Mandela; on 27 February 2025, he issued a “Call for Peace and Democratic Society,” urging his followers to lay down arms and convene a congress at Qandil in Iraq. The PKK accepted this call promptly, indicating compliance with their leader’s wishes.
A former Turkish President and Prime Minister, Süleyman Demirel, characterized the PKK-led insurgency as the most prominent in a series of Kurdish revolts against the Turkish state, emphasizing its significance in threatening national sovereignty. While the duration of the insurgency may be debated, history recalls that the denial of Kurdish identity led to violent crackdowns on revolts dating back to 1925. The PKK’s armed struggle commenced in 1984 under Öcalan’s leadership, who was eventually captured in 1999 with international assistance, serving an aggravated life sentence in Turkey.
During his imprisonment, Öcalan underwent an ideological transformation and extended his influence among Kurds in Syria, especially post-2011 when Syrian Kurds gained significant territory amidst the civil war with U.S. backing. The recent political upheaval stemming from the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 has redefined the geopolitical landscape, raising concerns for Turkey. The decline of Iranian power and the emergence of a pro-Israel U.S. administration have further complicated Turkey’s strategic position, particularly regarding the Kurdish population.
Historically, ties between Israel and the Kurds date back to the 1960s when connections were established amidst Kurdish uprisings in Iraq. The new support for Syrian Kurds from Israel could pose strategic threats to Turkey as over half of the world’s Kurds reside within its borders. Kurdish entities have already made strides toward autonomy in northern Iraq and Syria, yet the disintegration of the Syrian regime, coupled with possible turmoil in Iran, might provide the Kurds an opportunity to pursue a distinct national identity. In response, Turkey must reconsider its approach to this evolving situation.
The end of the Kurdish insurgency heralds a significant shift in the political dynamics of the Middle East, particularly for Turkey and Syria. This development, driven by a combination of historical and contemporary factors, illustrates the potential for a new Kurdish narrative in a transformed regional landscape. With the increasing influence of Kurdish groups and changing international alliances, Turkey faces pressing strategic challenges that necessitate a proactive response.
Original Source: www.realinstitutoelcano.org
