AccuWeather Forecasts Above Average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
AccuWeather forecasts a near to above average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, with potential for 13-18 named storms. Factors influencing this prediction include warm ocean temperatures and the Bermuda-Azores High. Residents are encouraged to prepare and stay informed.
AccuWeather’s meteorologists forecast a “near to above average” Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, as detailed in a report issued on Friday. Residents in the Virgin Islands are urged to prepare and stay informed about potential hurricane threats. The hurricane season is slated to occur from June 1 to November 30, 2025, with predictions regarding the number of storms likely to form during this period.
The report anticipates between 13 and 18 named storms, including 7 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. There is also a projection of 3 to 6 direct impacts to the United States. Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, noted a 20 percent chance of exceeding 18 named storms this year.
Several factors contribute to this forecast, such as unusually warm ocean water temperatures across the Atlantic, the positioning of the Bermuda-Azores High, and the emergence of tropical waves from the west coast of Africa. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also plays a role in tropical development, with its cycles affecting global weather patterns.
DaSilva explained that during a La Niña cycle, ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific cool significantly, potentially leading to active hurricane seasons due to reduced wind shear. Conversely, El Niño tends to increase wind shear, inhibiting hurricane development. A neutral ENSO phase, as noted by the National Weather Service, may occur during the hurricane season, affecting conditions for cyclone development.
In discussions with DaSilva, it was highlighted that La Niña conditions might impact the early part of the hurricane season, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected by summer. While La Niña often results in a more active season, the neutral phase can still foster cyclonic activity, albeit to a lesser extent.
Factors that influence tropical development include stronger African Easterly Jets under La Niña, which can generate more robust tropical waves leading to storm formation. Sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic are currently above average and are expected to promote more tropical development. The Bermuda-Azores High significantly affects storm movement by pushing or steering storms toward or away from the Caribbean.
DaSilva remarked that AccuWeather has examined similar years, like 2017, for forecasting purposes. Notably, 2017 experienced devastating storms such as Hurricanes Irma and Maria, which emerged under comparable atmospheric conditions. He advised residents to maintain vigilance and preparedness, stressing the importance of having a hurricane plan in place.
As the official start of hurricane season approaches, individuals are urged to remain alert for potential tropical development. Comprehensive weather forecasts and severe weather alerts are accessible through VITEMA and the National Weather Service, while the Source Weather Page publishes daily forecasts and weather videos.
AccuWeather predicts a near to above average hurricane season for 2025, urging residents, especially in the Virgin Islands, to prepare accordingly. This forecast highlights the importance of understanding weather patterns, including the influence of ENSO phases and ocean temperatures on hurricane development. Continuous vigilance and preparedness remain essential as the season approaches, even outside of the typical timeframe.
Original Source: stcroixsource.com
