Potential Cyclone Formation Off Western Australia Signals Active Weather Season Ahead
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts a tropical low may form offshore WA by Friday, potentially developing into a cyclone. With nine confirmed cyclones since December, this season may become one of the busiest in 19 years. Humid air is expected to bring heavy rain across northern Australia, posing flooding risks and enhancing the likelihood of additional cyclone activity through April.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has indicated the formation of a tropical low as early as Friday, approximately 500 kilometers off the northern coast of Western Australia. This weather system is projected to gradually migrate towards the coast, with a potential for development into a cyclone. Since December, there have been nine confirmed tropical cyclones, marking the highest frequency in three years.
If this low develops into a cyclone, it may be named either Courtney or Dianne. Concurrently, a surge of humid air from the north is expected to result in heavy rainfall across northern Australia over the next fortnight. Recently, Queensland experienced significant rainfall, with Townsville recording 301 millimeters in just one day, the heaviest since January 1998.
The Northern Territory and Western Australia’s Kimberley region are also predicted to experience increased precipitation throughout the weekend, as the monsoon trough potentially reestablishes itself. This climatic pattern not only points towards more tropical lows and cyclones but also suggests that the ongoing phase of heightened tropical activity may endure for several weeks.
The monsoon trough is vital for cyclone formation in Australia, as it gathers moist winds. A developing tropical low near the Cocos Islands currently presents no risk to the mainland; however, another system is anticipated to form off the WA coast. Initially positioned over 500 kilometers offshore, this low is expected to gradually approach land, influenced by water temperatures exceeding 31 degrees Celsius, above the 26.5 degrees Celsius threshold needed for cyclone generation.
The current cyclone season has been notably active, with nine cyclones confirmed and the potential for two more before the season concludes. If this new low intensifies to cyclone status, its naming will take place sequentially after the names Alfred and Bianca. However, the BOM estimates only a 10 percent chance of significant development this weekend, with predictions of a 30 percent chance from Monday to Wednesday of next week.
Model forecasts suggest the low may primarily travel parallel to the Pilbara coastline, although the unpredictability of cyclone path forecasting could lead to unexpected coastal impacts. Additionally, increased rainfall continues across Australia’s north and central regions, as the influx of humid air flows from the equatorial waters. Over the past week, the North Tropical Coast received over 500 millimeters, including a significant 872 millimeters at Garradunga.
Inland regions of northern Queensland have also experienced increased rain, spreading to areas previously dry. By the weekend, showers and thunderstorms are expected to cover the Northern Territory and parts of Northern South Australia. Continuous rain will be recorded throughout next week, raising the possibility of flooding if the monsoon becomes firmly established.
Long-term forecasts suggest that the rainy conditions are likely to persist into early April. The BOM’s forecast predicts an 80 percent probability of above-average rainfall throughout parts of northern Australia between March 30 and April 12. The expectation of above-average rainfall in April indicates a continued likelihood of cyclone activity through the remainder of the wet season, potentially resulting in Australia’s busiest cyclone season in 19 years if three additional storms are named this autumn.
In summary, Australia anticipates significant weather changes with the potential formation of a tropical low off the WA coast, which may develop into a cyclone. The current cyclone season is shaping up to be the busiest in nearly two decades, complemented by heavy rainfall and flooding risks across northern regions. Ongoing monitoring of weather patterns and cyclone predictions is essential during this active period, with forecasts indicating sustained rainfall and cyclone activity in the coming weeks.
Original Source: www.abc.net.au
