Renewed Fears of Conflict in Ethiopia Due to Tigray Divisions and Eritrea Tensions
Ethiopia faces fears of renewed conflict due to internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and rising tensions with Eritrea. Recent clashes in Mekele highlight the instability following the peace deal ending the Tigray war. The lingering effects of the conflict and unresolved issues pose significant risks of further violence.
Ethiopia is facing renewed fears of conflict after two years of relative peace following the Tigray war, which ended with the 2022 peace agreement. Internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and escalating tensions with Eritrea are contributing to these apprehensions. The population of Tigray is experiencing panic due to fuel shortages, rapid bank withdrawals, and rising food prices, as memories of the devastating conflict, which resulted in approximately 600,000 deaths, linger.
Violence resurfaced on March 11 when clashes broke out in Mekele, the capital of Tigray, following the dismissal of three Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) officers by the interim administration. Subsequently, the TDF assumed control of governmental institutions and media outlets, indicating a shift in power dynamics. The region is still grappling with the effects of the war, and a million displaced individuals remain unable to return home.
A significant internal rift within the TPLF is exacerbated by delays in executing the peace deal established in November 2022. There are also ongoing issues related to the presence of Eritrean troops and the disarmament of the TDF. Historian Gérard Prunier cites Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s reluctance to advance the peace process as a strategy to further isolate the Tigrayan community, which once held power in Ethiopia.
Simultaneously, tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have escalated, with reports of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki meeting with pro-secessionist TDF leaders in Asmara, a claim that TPLF president Debretsion Gebremichael has denied. Prunier warns that Afwerki might support TPLF secessionists not for ideological reasons but to destabilize Ethiopia for his own benefit. Furthermore, General Tsadkan Gebretensae has cautioned that the potential for war between Ethiopia and Eritrea exists, urging immediate measures to protect Tigray from becoming a frontline in a broader geopolitical conflict.
In conclusion, Ethiopia is on a precarious edge as internal divisions within the TPLF and escalating tensions with Eritrea raise the specter of renewed conflict. The struggles in Tigray, characterized by leadership disputes and unresolved issues from the previous war, highlight the fragility of the peace established in 2022. As both internal and external pressures mount, swift action is necessary to prevent further deterioration of the situation and the potential for an immediate resurgence of violence.
Original Source: international.la-croix.com
