Renewed Tensions in South Sudan: Causes and Consequences
Tensions in South Sudan are escalating due to militia violence, cabinet reshuffles, and the arrests of officials amid political strife between President Kiir and Vice President Machar, both of whom are struggling to maintain stability following a fragile peace agreement. Experts fear the likelihood of civil war is increasing amid unresolved leadership tensions and external influences, particularly from neighboring Sudan.
Tensions in South Sudan have surged due to heightened militia violence in Upper Nile state, cabinet reshuffles, and the detention of key officials in Juba. Key political figures President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar are embroiled in disputes that have led to violent confrontations amidst a fragile 2018 peace agreement, which ended a devastating civil war that resulted in nearly 400,000 deaths.
The recent unrest began when President Kiir dismissed several important government officials in February, which was perceived by Machar as a violation of the peace agreement. Daniel Akech, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that this decision provoked violent protests in western Bahr al-Ghazal due to Kiir’s lack of consultation with Machar.
Akech indicated that Kiir’s order for troop redeployments ignited conflicts in regions like Nasir, where a UN helicopter was attacked, resulting in casualties among UN personnel and South Sudanese officials. The UN-affiliated Radio Miraya implicated the White Army, an armed youth group associated with Machar’s Nuer ethnic community, in the helicopter assault.
Responses from the international community have included condemnation from several Western embassies regarding the attack, while the US Embassy has mandated the withdrawal of non-essential personnel due to ongoing armed conflicts among various groups.
Amid the escalating unrest, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) convened a summit on March 12 to address the situation, with Uganda deploying special forces to South Sudan to maintain security. Uganda’s military chief underscored support for Kiir, affirming that any challenge to his presidency would be perceived as an act of war against Uganda.
The UN has voiced concerns regarding the nation’s regression, reiterating the need for South Sudan to adhere to the peace agreement and reverse the escalating turmoil that has led to severe humanitarian crises, including acute food insecurity affecting more than half the population and millions displaced internally and externally.
Calls for political dialogue have emerged from local civil society groups, who seek to mitigate the tensions between Kiir and Machar, whose relationship remains fraught with historical grievances. Given their unresolved issues, experts warn that South Sudan could face renewed civil war, as both leaders wield their own armed forces.
While the overall security situation is deteriorating, some analysts caution against assuming full-scale conflict is inevitable, emphasizing the importance of international intervention in stabilizing the volatile political landscape. The potential impact of the ongoing crisis in Sudan further complicates the situation, as South Sudan relies heavily on trade with its northern neighbor.
In summary, South Sudan is currently experiencing a resurgence of tensions driven by militia violence, political discord, and an unstable government. The ongoing rivalry between President Kiir and Vice President Machar has resulted in violence and humanitarian crises, prompting concern from the international community. Urgent calls for dialogue and intervention are necessary to stabilize the political landscape and prevent the potential resurgence of civil war. Ultimately, the path forward depends on addressing the historical grievances between the leaders and reinforcing the peace agreement.
Original Source: www.dw.com
