Study Reveals Climate Change Enhances Urban Fire Risks Worldwide

A new study reveals that climate change is likely to increase urban fire risks globally. Predictions indicate up to 300,000 deaths and over a million injuries by 2100 if temperatures exceed 4 degrees Celsius. The analysis suggests that limiting warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius could significantly reduce these impacts. New Zealand faces the highest predicted increase in urban fires, with projected rises of up to 40% under severe warming scenarios.

A recent study published in the online journal Nature Cities indicates that climate change is expected to increase the risk of urban fires globally over the coming decades. Researchers analyzed fire incident data alongside monthly maximum temperatures from over 2,800 cities across 20 countries, representing more than 20% of the global population.

If global warming exceeds 4 degrees Celsius, it is projected that there could be approximately 300,000 fire-related fatalities and over a million injuries worldwide by the year 2100. However, if measures are taken to limit warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius, these detrimental impacts may be reduced by up to 50%.

Under a high-emission scenario, the study forecasts a 22.2% increase in outdoor fires and an 11.6% rise in vehicle fires by 2100, whereas building fires are predicted to decline slightly by 4.6%. Specifically, for each 1-degree Celsius increase in air temperature, the likelihood of vehicle fires is expected to rise by 3.3%, and outdoor fires by 6.9%.

The study further explores the influence of climate change on the frequency of fires across urban settings, including vehicles, buildings, and outdoor regions like landfills. Notably, New Zealand shows the most significant connection, with projections indicating a potential 40% increase in urban fires by 2100 if warming surpasses 4 degrees Celsius.

The findings from this research may serve as a foundation for developing effective fire prevention strategies, such as enhanced fire fuel management. Nevertheless, the researchers acknowledge limitations in their data coverage, particularly the lack of information from Africa and South America, and the impact of the rising prevalence of electric vehicles on vehicle fires is not fully captured.

The study highlights the urgent implications of climate change on urban fire frequency and severity, predicting significant increases in fire-related tragedies if global temperatures continue to rise. Implementing effective measures to mitigate warming could drastically lower these risks, emphasizing the need for proactive fire management strategies. Moreover, further research is necessary to address data gaps and adequately assess the full impact of emerging vehicle technologies.

Original Source: www.aa.com.tr