ISW: Cessation of US Aid to Ukraine Would Strengthen Russian Influence

The ISW warns that halting military assistance to Ukraine would weaken U.S. negotiating power and help Russia gain an advantage in the conflict. A recent contentious meeting between U.S. and Ukrainian leaders highlighted tensions over aid and peace negotiations, amidst concerns that diminished support could embolden adversaries like Iran, North Korea, and China. The need to maintain steady aid to Ukraine is crucial for both military success and U.S. geopolitical influence.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has issued a warning that ceasing military assistance to Ukraine could severely undermine the United States’ negotiating leverage and switch the battlefield advantage toward Russia. Following an intense conference between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on February 28, discussions regarding halting military aid to Ukraine have surfaced but remain unapproved.

The meeting was meant to finalize a mineral agreement in exchange for assistance, but it descended into conflict, resulting in the dismissal of the agreement. President Trump admonished President Zelenskyy for not pursuing peace negotiations, claiming that he was “gambling with World War III”. In response, President Zelenskyy argued that any ceasefire would necessitate security assurances from Russia, recalling previous instances where Russia failed to honor ceasefires.

Since the onset of the Russian invasion, the U.S. has provided over $65.9 billion in support, becoming Ukraine’s largest military aid contributor. President Zelenskyy has reiterated that Ukraine cannot secure victory in the war without U.S. support. The ISW has delineated a noteworthy link between Russian territorial expansions and interruptions in Western aid, with Russia capitalizing on reduced support in the spring of 2024 to advance its incursions.

The current steady flow of Western aid has proven essential in restraining Russian advancements along the frontlines and impairing Russia’s defense capabilities. Ukrainian forces have effectively utilized U.S.-supplied systems, such as Patriot air defense and HIMARS, inflicting tremendous losses on Russian military units while limiting Russia’s gains.

According to the ISW, suspending U.S. military aid would permit President Putin to escalate demands and strengthen his belief in achieving total victory via warfare. The analysis also underscores broader geopolitical consequences, indicating that reduced support for Ukraine could diminish U.S. global influence and embolden adversarial nations such as Iran, North Korea, and China.

Additionally, President Putin continues to depend on Iranian drones and North Korean military assets in the ongoing conflict. American assistance to Ukraine is positioned as a testament to the United States’ resolve in safeguarding democracies against present and future aggressions worldwide. The ISW cautions that a withdrawal of support could embolden adversaries to challenge U.S. commitments internationally.

The ISW emphasizes the critical nature of continued U.S. military support for Ukraine, highlighting its indispensable role in maintaining not only Ukrainian defense but also broader U.S. geopolitical standing. Ceasing aid could encourage Russia and embolden adversaries globally, thereby compromising U.S. commitments to other allies and undermining efforts to manage future aggression against democracies.

Original Source: euromaidanpress.com