Rising Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Linked to Climate Change
Recent studies reveal that the number of tropical cyclones has remained stable at an average of 47 per year since 1980; however, their intensity has escalated. The average maximum wind speed of cyclones increased from 182 kph to 192 kph over the last decade, with a rise in category five storms from 10% to 14%. Climate change is a significant factor contributing to these intensified cyclone events.
According to data collected over the last four decades, the frequency of tropical cyclones has remained consistent, with an average of 47 storms occurring each year since 1980. These storms, known as hurricanes and typhoons, exhibit an alarming trend in their intensity. Recent analyses reveal that the average maximum wind speed of cyclones has escalated from 182 kilometers per hour (kph) to 192 kph, reflecting a 5 percent increase. Furthermore, the occurrence of category five cyclones—those exceeding wind speeds of 250 kph—has risen significantly, from approximately one in ten to an astonishing 1.4 in ten storms in the last decade. These phenomena align closely with warnings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), emphasizing that climate change is likely to exacerbate the severity of tropical cyclones.
The continued rise in storm intensity is concerning, as it suggests a potentially increased risk of devastating humanitarian crises, particularly in regions characterized by poverty and vulnerability. The IPCC’s findings bolster the hypothesis that climate change is a significant factor influencing the frequency and intensity of these storms, particularly for the most catastrophic categories, four and five. Additionally, recent cyclonic activity, such as the 42 tropical cyclones recorded globally in 2024, has raised urgent awareness regarding preparedness and resilience in affected communities. Notably, Cyclone Milton, which struck the United States, attested to the elevated capacity of storms, reaching wind speeds up to 278 kph, underscoring the pressing need for strategic disaster management approaches.
In conclusion, while the number of tropical cyclones remains stable, their intensity is demonstrably increasing, with more severe storms becoming commonplace. This rising trend poses significant challenges, notably that the humanitarian impact of cyclones will likely worsen, particularly for vulnerable populations. Thus, urgent interventions and preparedness efforts are essential to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on storm intensity and protect affected communities.
Original Source: www.rfi.fr
