The Impact of Climate Change on Tropical Storm Intensity and Human Vulnerability: A Focus on Cyclone Chido
Cyclone Chido, an intense tropical cyclone, impacted Mayotte and Mozambique, resulting in significant destruction and human suffering. The disaster highlights the heightened risks posed by climate change, ongoing conflict, and migration. Vulnerable populations, particularly undocumented migrants in precarious housing, faced severe outcomes. Understanding the changing patterns of cyclones is vital for developing effective resilience strategies to mitigate the impacts of such storms in the future.
Cyclone Chido, classified as an intense tropical cyclone akin to a category 4 hurricane, struck the small island of Mayotte on December 14, 2023, with winds nearing 155 mph. Its devastation extended to Mozambique and the Comoros archipelago. This cyclone’s intensity aligns with a troubling trend of increased severe tropical storms in the Indian Ocean, correlating to the rise in global ocean temperatures due to climate change. Current data indicates that around 70% of Mayotte’s inhabitants have been impacted, while Mozambique suffered significant infrastructural loss, with over 50,000 homes damaged.
The ramifications of Cyclone Chido are compounded by ongoing conflicts within Mozambique and the influx of undocumented migrants to Mayotte, contributing to high casualty rates and extensive property destruction. In particular, many migrants residing on Mayotte risked perilous journeys fleeing conflict from regions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, resulting in precarious housing conditions. Fears of police intervention during evacuations exacerbated the disaster’s toll, leaving many residents with limited safe havens during the cyclone.
The situation is dire in Mozambique, particularly in the conflict-affected Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces. Recurrent violence and cyclones have led to persistent evacuations and a steep decline in living conditions. Reports indicate that more than half a million people remain homeless following Chido, with many forced to reside in displacement camps. The cyclone’s early landing in the season also hindered timely preparatory actions.
Predictions indicate that climate change will likely intensify tropical cyclones, with increasing sea surface temperatures providing more energy for stronger storms. The Indian Ocean’s rise in temperature is notably outpacing the global average, leading to an unprecedented surge in intense storm activity. Attribution studies reveal that the sea surface temperatures along Chido’s path were approximately 1.1°C higher than they would have been without climate change, increasing the likelihood of such an event.
The article examines the intersection of climate change, migration, and conflict as contributing factors to the intensification of tropical storms, particularly Cyclone Chido. It discusses the repercussions on vulnerable populations in Mayotte and Mozambique, highlighting how socioeconomic issues exacerbate the dangers posed by natural disasters. The research aims to understand changing cyclone characteristics in southern Africa and emphasizes the need to consider social dynamics alongside climate change to enhance community resilience against future storms.
In conclusion, Cyclone Chido serves as a critical example of how climate change exacerbates existing socio-political vulnerabilities, leading to heightened disaster risk, especially among migrant communities. The escalating intensity of storms in a warming climate underscores the necessity for comprehensive strategies that encompass both environmental and humanitarian considerations in disaster preparedness and response efforts. Addressing the intertwined impacts of climate change, conflict, and migration is paramount in building robust resilience in affected communities.
Original Source: theconversation.com
