The Deadly Nexus of Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict:…

Cyclone Chido, a category 4 hurricane, struck Mayotte and Mozambique, increasing casualties and damage due to climate change effects. Socioeconomic issues and conflict exacerbate vulnerabilities in the affected regions, where many migrants face precarious living conditions. With rising ocean temperatures, the frequency and intensity of such storms are expected to increase, necessitating comprehensive approaches to disaster resilience that address the intertwined dynamics of climate change, conflict, and migration.

Cyclone Chido, classified as an intense tropical cyclone, equated to a category 4 hurricane, struck Mayotte on December 14, causing wind gusts nearing 155 mph. The cyclone subsequently impacted Mozambique with similar intensity. In recent years, the region has experienced an uptick in severe tropical cyclones, attributed largely to climate change and increasing ocean temperatures. Current estimates reveal that around 70% of Mayotte’s population has been affected, with over 50,000 homes in Mozambique damaged or destroyed.

Socioeconomic issues compound the hazards posed by such storms. Many migrants living on Mayotte, having fled conflicts in their home countries, constitute over half the island’s population. These individuals often reside in precarious conditions, deterring them from evacuation due to fears of deportation. Infrastructure inadequacies exacerbate their vulnerability, as the restoration of essential services like electricity and water takes a significant amount of time.

In Mozambique, the ongoing conflict and terrorist actions have led to repeated displacements and worsened living conditions. Provinces most affected by Cyclone Chido were already among the poorest, further exacerbated by limited educational and employment opportunities. As the situation stands, more than half a million individuals in Mozambique were without stable housing, with numbers likely to increase post-Chido.

The cyclone’s unexpected arrival at the start of the season complicated disaster responses, highlighting deficiencies in preparedness due to resource shortages and unrest following recent elections. As ocean temperatures rise, the frequency and intensity of cyclones are expected to increase, expanding regions at risk of severe weather events. Rapid attribution studies have indicated that climate change has significantly intensified Chido, with warmer ocean surface temperatures contributing to its strength.

The propensity for tropical cyclones to produce excessive rainfall and flooding is also anticipated to rise, with slower-moving storms resulting in more localized rainfall accumulation and subsequent flooding. The interplay of climate change with conflict and migration highlights the need for comprehensive resilience strategies that consider these social dynamics to protect vulnerable communities effectively in future storm events.

The relationship between climate change, migration, and conflict significantly influences the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in southern Africa. Recent trends indicate that the Indian Ocean is warming at a rate faster than the global average, leading to more severe storms such as Cyclone Chido. This cyclone not only causes destruction but also sheds light on the socio-economic factors that heighten the risks faced by vulnerable populations, particularly migrants and those in conflict-affected regions. The challenges of rebuilding and responding to these disasters are further compounded by infrastructural inadequacies and socio-political unrest, which must be addressed to enhance resilience among affected communities.

Cyclone Chido exemplifies the complex interplay between climate change, migration, and conflict, exacerbating vulnerabilities in regions like Mayotte and Mozambique. The hurricane’s devastating impact highlights the urgent need for comprehensive strategies that incorporate socio-economic considerations alongside environmental factors to bolster resilience among displaced and migrant populations. As climate patterns shift, addressing these intertwined issues will be crucial in mitigating future disaster impacts in vulnerable areas.

Original Source: theconversation.com