Cyclone Chido Devastates Mayotte, Raising Concerns Over Climate Effects
Tropical cyclone Chido struck Mayotte on December 14, causing catastrophic damage with winds over 200 km/h and significant rainfall. It was the strongest cyclone on the island in nearly 90 years, resulting in a national mourning declared by President Macron due to severe casualties. Although warnings were issued, many were affected due to the cyclone’s fortuitous path, exacerbated by the island’s informal housing structures. The cyclone’s impact continues as it proceeded towards Mozambique and Malawi, raising questions about climate change and storm intensity.
Tropical cyclone Chido struck Mayotte on December 14, unleashing devastating winds exceeding 200 km/h and gusts surpassing 225 km/h, marking it as the most powerful storm to impact the region in almost a century, as reported by Météo-France. Accompanied by torrential rainfall totaling 176 mm within a 12-hour period and extremely rough seas with wave heights averaging over 5 meters, the cyclone wreaked havoc on the island, leading to significant destruction, including damage to Météo-France’s observational facilities.
Following the disaster, French President Emmanuel Macron proclaimed a national day of mourning. Initial reports indicated a grave loss of life, with hundreds feared dead, a tragic outcome for an island that typically does not encounter such potent tropical cyclones, especially given the prevalence of makeshift housing in the area. The high casualties occurred despite precise and timely warnings issued by Météo-France, commencing more than 50 hours prior to the landfall of the cyclone. An amber alert was activated on December 13, followed by a red alert later that evening, and escalated to a rare violet alert on the day of the storm’s impact.
Chido’s trajectory was notably atypical, bypassing the larger island of Madagascar which might have otherwise mitigated the storm’s intensity. Rather, Chido made a direct hit on Mayotte, with its eye completely enveloping the island. Post-impact, the cyclone continued its course, making landfall in Mozambique on December 15, where it subsequently weakened but continued to deliver heavy rainfall across Mozambique and Malawi.
Météo-France stated that while the specific influence of climate change on Chido remains uncertain, the immediate consequences resulted from its unusual path and direct assault on Mayotte. “The impacts of Chido are above all due to its track and the direct hit on Mayotte,” as detailed on their website. Additionally, Météo-France operates as the WMO’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the South-West Indian Ocean, having provided a seasonal forecast indicating an earlier active cyclone season for 2024-2025.
The RSMC’s seasonal prediction, released on October 31, correctly foreshadowed an early onset of cyclone activity, a shift from previous years when impactful systems typically appeared in January. The forecast anticipated 9 to 13 cyclonic systems for the season, with an expectation that 4 to 7 of these would escalate to full tropical cyclone status.
The Indian Ocean is prone to tropical cyclones, which can cause severe impacts on coastal communities. Cyclone Chido’s intensity and trajectory set it apart from previous storms, highlighting the vulnerability of islands like Mayotte that may lack adequate infrastructure to withstand such events. Understanding the patterns and predictions surrounding tropical cyclones is critical, especially in the context of changing climatic conditions. The work of meteorological agencies, such as Météo-France, plays a crucial role in tracking these systems and issuing timely warnings to mitigate loss of life and property.
In summary, tropical cyclone Chido has underscored the vulnerability of Mayotte to extreme weather events, leading to significant devastation and loss of life. The timely warnings from meteorological agencies demonstrate the importance of preparedness, even in areas less accustomed to such storms. The ongoing discussions regarding climate change’s influence on cyclone patterns further emphasize the need for comprehensive research and enhanced forecasting to safeguard communities in the face of evolving climatic threats.
Original Source: wmo.int
