Turkey’s Strategic Gains Following Assad’s Ouster in Syria
Turkey has reestablished its diplomatic presence in Syria following Bashar al-Assad’s removal. The visit of Turkey’s spy chief to Damascus is deemed a strategic victory, enhancing Turkey’s influence in the region. Turkey balances its domestic refugee policies and foreign relations while supporting Turkish-backed forces against U.S.-backed Kurdish groups. This evolving scenario positions Turkey as a key player in shaping Syria’s reconstruction efforts.
In the wake of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fleeing to Moscow, Turkey reestablished its presence in Syria by raising its flag over the embassy in Damascus for the first time in 12 years. This event followed a visit by Turkey’s spy chief, Ibrahim Kalin, which was characterized as a significant diplomatic maneuver enhancing Turkey’s role in post-Assad Syria. Dareen Khalifa of the International Crisis Group labeled Kalin’s visit a “victory lap,” suggesting that Ankara has successfully positioned itself as a key player benefiting from the regime change.
The development of the situation in Syria showcased Turkey’s strategic patience, having previously delayed armed actions from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), in hopes of reviving negotiations with Assad through Russian and Iranian mediation. When these efforts failed, and HTS decided to advance, Turkey finally acquiesced, not fully anticipating the subsequent rapid expansion of HTS influence across Syria. Gönül Tol from the Middle East Institute termed this unforeseen outcome as a “catastrophic success” for Ankara, as it opened new avenues for Turkish foreign policy and bolstered Erdoğan’s domestic standing without incurring expected risks.
Erdoğan’s domestic balancing act regarding Syrian refugees has been made easier by Assad’s downfall, enabling him to promote his image as the protector of displaced Syrians while placating nationalist sentiments. Following the fall of Assad, Turkish officials swiftly announced initiatives for the return of Syrian refugees and pledged to assist in rebuilding Syria, which resulted in a positive reaction from the construction sector. Moreover, Turkish-backed forces have begun asserting control over areas previously held by U.S.-backed Kurdish groups, showcasing a significant shift in the power dynamics in northern Syria.
Turkey’s strategy now includes supporting legitimate Kurdish representation in Damascus while aiming to prevent an autonomous Kurdish administration in northern Syria. Khalifa emphasized that the current environment in post-Assad Syria grants Turkey significant leverage, allowing it to engage with HTS as they seek international acknowledgment and assistance. As reconstruction efforts are necessary for Syria, Turkey is positioned to play a crucial role at every juncture.
Overall, Ankara’s swift re-engagement in Syria following the regime change illustrates its strategic maneuvering and pursuit of regional influence, with implications for both domestic policy and broader geopolitical dynamics.
The article explores Turkey’s re-engagement in Syria after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad, emphasizing its strategic positioning and influence in the region post-Assad. It highlights significant diplomatic moves, such as the visit of Turkey’s spy chief to Damascus, and discusses the balance Erdoğan seeks to maintain between domestic public sentiment regarding Syrian refugees and international relations, particularly with Kurdish forces in northern Syria. The shifting dynamics provide Turkey with newfound leverage and opportunities in shaping Syria’s future.
In conclusion, Turkey’s recent actions following Assad’s ousting underscore a calculated approach to asserting its influence in Syria. By proactively engaging with key groups and leveraging its diplomatic relationships, Turkey aims to augment its regional power while navigating the complexities of domestic and international expectations. The evolving landscape offers Ankara both opportunities and challenges as it seeks to maintain its strategic interests in the region.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
