Impact of Climate Change on Cyclone Chido’s Intensity

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Recent research indicates that climate change significantly intensified Cyclone Chido, which struck Mayotte, with simplified data suggesting a 40% increase in cyclone intensity likelihood in today’s climate compared to pre-industrial times. Cyclone Chido has been categorized as the most destructive cyclone on the island in nearly 90 years, potentially resulting in thousands of casualties due to its severe impacts.

A preliminary study conducted by scientists from Imperial College London has concluded that climate change significantly amplified Cyclone Chido as it approached Mayotte in the Indian Ocean. This assessment reports that the likelihood of cyclones with Chido’s intensity has increased by 40 percent in today’s warmer climate, compared to pre-industrial times. Cyclone Chido, classified as a Category 4 storm—the second highest on the scale—has been described as the most devastating cyclone to impact Mayotte in nearly nine decades, causing widespread destruction and threatening a rising death toll.

The cyclone’s impact was particularly severe in Mayotte, where one-third of the population resides in makeshift accommodations. Despite uncertainties regarding the full extent of the disaster, officials are apprehensive that casualties may reach into the thousands. The researchers utilized sophisticated computer models simulating numerous cyclones to assess climate conditions preceding human-induced global warming. Their findings indicated a notable increase in wind speeds of approximately 3 miles per second at the site where Chido made landfall compared to the pre-industrial era.

The study posits that climate change effectively elevated Chido from a Category 3 to a Category 4 cyclone. While France’s weather service has refrained from directly linking Chido’s intensity to climate change, it acknowledges that rising ocean temperatures from anthropogenic climate change have exacerbated the severity of storms. Mayotte experienced the full force of the cyclone, and Meteo-France emphasized that Chido’s damage primarily stemmed from its trajectory over the island.

As scientists note, global temperatures are now approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial averages, with this increase contributing to the increasing frequency and intensity of severe weather events. Warmer air retains additional water vapor, while elevated ocean temperatures lead to amplified evaporation, creating more conducive conditions for tropical storms to develop.

The phenomenon of extreme weather events, including cyclones, has been closely linked to climate change, particularly due to the increased temperatures of the earth’s atmosphere and oceans. The recent study highlights the interplay between global warming and cyclone formation, presenting compelling evidence that rising sea and air temperatures contribute to the enhanced strength and frequency of such tropical storms. Cyclone Chido serves as a critical case study illustrating these trends and their impactful consequences on vulnerable regions like Mayotte, which must contend with the reality of climate-induced disasters.

In summary, the findings from Imperial College London present substantial evidence that climate change has intensified both the occurrence and strength of Cyclone Chido, raising critical concerns about the vulnerability of regions like Mayotte to future extreme weather events. The growing risks associated with climate change necessitate urgent action and further research to mitigate potential impacts on susceptible populations globally.

Original Source: www.barrons.com

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