Aleppo’s Unexpected Fall: Rebel Offensives Amidst Geopolitical Shifts

A recent offensive by Syrian rebels has led to the capture of Aleppo, indicating a shift in power dynamics influenced by diminished Russian and Iranian support. The Syrian regime faces significant vulnerabilities due to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and increased Israeli airstrikes on Iranian proxies, leaving it less equipped to respond to the rebel threat effectively.

In recent weeks, a sudden offensive launched by Syrian rebels in Aleppo has unveiled a significant shift in the ongoing conflict landscape, driven by external distractions involving Russia and Iran. Aleppo, once a fierce battleground during the Syrian civil war from 2012 to 2016, witnessed a swift offensive by rebel forces, leading to the city’s rapid capture. The previous support provided to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, primarily from Russia, has diminished as military resources have been redirected towards the war in Ukraine. Concurrently, ongoing Israeli airstrikes have substantially weakened Iranian proxies in Syria, further diminishing the regime’s military capabilities.

To comprehend the current developments in Aleppo, it is essential to consider the historical context of the Syrian civil war. Aleppo, Syria’s second-city, faced intense fighting between 2012 and 2016, culminating in its capture by Assad’s forces, supported by Russian military intervention. Despite a ceasefire established in March 2020, the Assad regime’s stability has waned due to the military focus shift from Russia to the Ukraine conflict and persistent Israeli strikes against Iranian-backed groups.

The conclusion drawn from the recent developments in Aleppo highlights a pivotal change in the balance of power within Syria. The effectiveness of surprise tactics illustrated by the rebels, combined with the diminished support for Assad from Russia and Iran, poses a significant threat to the stability of the regime. Experts suggest that ongoing conflicts in the region may prolong instability as the cycle of strife evolves, with no clear resolution in sight.

Original Source: www.theguardian.com