Above-Normal Rainfall Forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre forecasts above-normal rainfall for the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September, affecting several countries. This rainy season is crucial for agriculture, with a high risk of flooding in South Sudan and Sudan. Seasonal forecasts enable informed decision-making in agriculture, health, and water management, and support the Early Warnings for All initiative by the WMO. The region has experienced severe flooding previously, necessitating proactive planning for the upcoming season.
The Greater Horn of Africa is set to experience above-normal rainfall from June to September, as predicted by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), a recognized regional climate center within the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This forecast covers a significant portion of the region, affecting countries such as Djibouti, Eritrea, northern and central Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. The months of June to September constitute a crucial rainy season, contributing over 90% of the annual rainfall in the northern region and approximately 40% in the southern areas. The anticipated wetter-than-normal conditions for this period are reminiscent of similar climatic patterns observed in 1998 and 2010, with an associated risk of flooding particularly in South Sudan and Sudan, as noted by Dr. Guleid Artan, the Director of ICPAC. Countries that previously faced severe flooding will transition into their dry season during this forecasted period. This includes Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, the United Republic of Tanzania, and certain regions of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda. Seasonal climate forecasts are essential for informing decision-making processes in sectors including agriculture, healthcare, and water resource management. These forecasts form part of a broader initiative supported by the WMO to enhance early warning systems across the region. The announcement was made during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, which convenes climate scientists, governmental organizations, non-governmental organizations, and representatives from climate-sensitive sectors to discuss potential impacts and strategies. Over the past two decades, the WMO has invested in regional climate outlook forums, providing vital climate forecasts and information aimed at safeguarding lives and supporting critical sectors such as agriculture, food security, and disaster risk reduction. ICPAC employs a robust seasonal forecasting method, aligned with WMO guidelines, utilizing initialized forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) along with three calibration techniques. The expected onset of rain is anticipated to arrive early to normal across various parts of the region, particularly in central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan. However, Djibouti and parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, as well as southern South Sudan, may experience a delay. The temperature outlook indicates an increased likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions across the region, particularly in northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, as well as in Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
The Greater Horn of Africa is a region significantly influenced by seasonal rainfall patterns, particularly from June to September, which is critical for agricultural productivity and overall water resource management. The forecast of above-normal rainfall is significant as it plays a pivotal role in sustaining livelihoods in these countries, which are often heavily reliant on rainfall for agricultural activities. The historical reference to past wet seasons in 1998 and 2010 establishes a context for expectations of flooding, putting emphasis on the need for preparedness and strategic planning. The ICPAC’s initiative, under the WMO’s guidelines, showcases the importance of regional cooperation in addressing climate-related challenges.
In conclusion, the forecast for above-normal rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September carries vital implications for agriculture, public health, and water resources in the region. With careful planning and adherence to seasonal climate outlooks, the communities can mitigate risks related to potential flooding while optimizing the benefits of the anticipated rainfall. The collaboration of various stakeholders as facilitated by the WMO and ICPAC is essential for effective disaster risk reduction and enhancing food security in this climate-sensitive region.
Original Source: wmo.int
